Updated 845am CT – Tuesday / 25 March 2014
…. Sunshine Returns Today ….
…. Mid Week Rain Chances ….
…. Much Warmer Late Week ….
On this Tuesday morning…. surface high pressure /1027mb/ is situated over the Texas panhandle and Oklahoma with a weakening cold front over the Gulf of Mexico and over northeastern Mexico. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our local surface winds are north northeasterly.
In the upper levels of the atmosphere… a broad upper level low pressure trough is over the eastern half of the USA with an upper level low pressure area over northwestern Mexico over the northern Baja Peninsula. As a result of this upper air wind pattern, the upper level winds over south central Texas and the Austin metro area about 18,000 feet above the ground are west northwesterly at 25 to 35 mph.
The upper level low pressure disturbance.. that produced rain to our south yesterday.. has now moved to the east of the area. As a result, clouds have broken with the passage of another weak reinforcing cold front through the area.
After sunshine today, the upper level low pressure disturbance out west over northwestern Mexico will cross the area by late tonight through tomorrow into early Thursday with increased cloud cover and better rain and even a few thunderstorms. Current NWS guidance suggests upwards of 1/4 to 1/2 inch of rain locally with this passing system. Some thunderstorms.. with frequent deadly cloud to ground lightning.. are possible tomorrow into tomorrow night.
By Thursday, as the upper air system moves east of the area, clouds will break with more sunshine and much warmer temperatures expected. Another cold front is expected in the area by sometime Friday but it will result in only a slight cool down as abundant sunshine continues into the weekend.
Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: My confidence in the details of my forecast is very high today into tonight. By late tonight into tomorrow into early Thursday, my forecast confidence decreases to medium to high (timing of the passage of the upper level low and associated rain chances being the issues). My forecast confidence rises back to high to very high by Thursday midday and afternoon through the weekend (the cold frontal timing on Friday being the primary uncertain issue).
Have a good Tuesday…
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel