Updated 845am CT – Tuesday / 18 March 2014
…. Sunshine and Unseasonably Warm Temperatures ….
…. Humidity and Increased Clouds For the Latter Part of the Week ….
…. Slim Chance of Rain Friday Through the Weekend ….
On this Tuesday morning…. a high pressure area /1012mb/ is over the Gulf of Mexico. A deepening area of low pressure /989mb/ is over western Kansas and eastern Colorado. A cold front extends south southwestward from central Nebraska through the low into northern New Mexico and Arizona. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our local surface winds are south southwesterly.
In the upper levels of the atmosphere… a deepening upper level low extends southwestward from Nebraska into Colorado and the southwestern USA. As a result of this upper air wind pattern, the upper level winds over south central Texas and the Austin metro area about 18,000 feet above the ground are west southwesterly at 55 to 65 mph.
We’re seeing a return southerly surface wind flow with much warmer temperatures today. In addition, with a gusty southwesterly surface wind tomorrow combining with the chronic drought conditions and dormant vegetation, expect high fire danger as well.
A cold front will move through the area late tonight with cooler and drier air arriving as surface high pressure settles into the area.
As this surface high moves east of the area by Thursday.. low level moisture increases by late week, clouds will be on the increase with late night and early morning low cloudiness. By late Friday into Friday night and early Saturday, as another cold front approaches the area, we’ll see a slim chance of rain.
Even as the Saturday cold front moves well south and east of the local area and surface high pressure settles southward over the area.. current forecast guidance suggests that passing upper level disturbances may allow for clouds to linger back over the cooler air with some indication of patchy light overrunning rain Saturday into Sunday and Monday.
Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: My confidence in my forecast is very high today through tomorrow and then high to very high for Thursday and Friday. By the weekend, my forecast confidence falls back to medium (timing of the cold front on Saturday as well any overrunning clouds/rainfall for the weekend into early next week being the issues).
Have a good Tuesday…
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel