Troy Kimmel Weather

Forecasting Austin and South Central Texas Weather Since 1984

TK’s Weather Discussion….

Updated 845am CT – Wednesday / 12 March 2014

…. Plenty of Sun… Strong Winds and Cooler Today ….
…. More Clouds by the Weekend with Slim Rain Chances Returning by Late Sunday ….

On this Wednesday morning…. a low pressure area /1000mb/ is over the Ohio Valley region with a cold front extending southwestward into Arkansas and northern Louisiana to along the Texas coast. Surface high pressure area /1036mb/.. building southeastward behind the front.. is located from Wyoming into eastern Washington and Oregon. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our local surface winds are gusty northerly across the area.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere… a east northeastward moving low pressure disturbance is over Georgia with another developing upper air disturbance over the four corners region. As a result of this upper air wind pattern, the upper level winds over south central Texas and the Austin metro area about 18,000 feet above the ground are westerly at 65 to 75 mph.

In the wake of the strong cold front in the midnight hour this morning.. a sunny and windy day is ahead. Compared with yesterday’s highs, much cooler temperatures will prevail. Please note, when considering the ongoing chronic drought and dormant vegetation, the very high fire danger across the area until winds diminish later this afternoon until tonight.

As the surface high moves east of the area… a return south southeasterly surface wind will result in a warming trend by tomorrow into the weekend. As well, clouds will be on the increase again by tomorrow night into Friday. As another cold front will move through the area on Sunday, we’ll see slim rain chances develop late Sunday into Sunday night.

Drier and slightly cooler conditions will prevail for Sunday night into the early part of next week.

Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: My confidence in my forecast is  very high today through late week and into the weekend. My forecast confidence falls back to medium for Sunday and Sunday night (timing of clouds, any rainfall chances as well as  frontal passage timing on Sunday being the issues). My forecast confidence increases back to high to very high for early next week.

Have a good Wednesday…
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

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