Troy Kimmel Weather

Forecasting Austin and South Central Texas Weather Since 1984

TK’s Weather Discussion….

Updated 845am CT – Tuesday / 11 March 2014

…. Windy and Unseasonably Warm Today ….
…. A Strong Cold Front Due Tonight ….
…. More Clouds by Next Weekend with Slim Rain Chances Returning by Late Sunday ….

On this Tuesday morning…. a surface high pressure area /1016mb/ is over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. A weak surface low area /1013mb/ is over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. A southward moving cold front extends from northern Missouri into a surface low /1000mb/ over northern Kansas and eastern Colorado into southern Utah and northwestern Arizona.  As a result of this surface weather pattern, our local surface winds are southwesterly across the area.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere… a east northeastward moving low pressure disturbance is over east Texas. As a result of this upper air wind pattern, the upper level winds over south central Texas and the Austin metro area about 18,000 feet above the ground are north northwesterly at 30 to 40 mph.

In the wake of the upper air disturbance to our east, skies will partial clear today with a dry gusty southwesterly surface wind picking up. As a result, with the help of more sunshine as well as compressional heating ahead of a cold front due tonight, we’ll see daytime highs today warm to well above seasonal averages.

The strong cold front will move through the area tonight with little sensible weather other than the frontal wind shift. Much cooler temperatures will prevail with abundant sunshine for the middle into the latter part of the week.

Clouds will be on the increase again by late Thursday night into Friday. As another cold front will move through the area on Sunday, we’ll see slim rain chances develop late Sunday into Sunday night.

Drier and slightly cooler conditions will prevail for Sunday night into the early part of next week.

Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: My confidence in my forecast is high to very high today through mid and late week. My forecast confidence falls back to medium for late Thursday and Friday through the weekend (timing of clouds and any rainfall chances through the period as well as frontal passage timing on Sunday being the issues).
Forecast confidence increases back to high to very high for early next week.

Have a good Tuesday…
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

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