Troy Kimmel Weather

Forecasting Austin and South Central Texas Weather Since 1984

TK’s Weather Discussion….

Updated 845am CT – Monday / 10 March 2014

…. Clouds and Rain Chances Linger into the New Week ….
…. Clearing by Tomorrow ….
…. A Strong Cold Front Due Tomorrow Night ….
…. More Clouds with Rain Chances Returning by Late Friday into Next Weekend ….

On this Monday morning…. a surface high pressure area /1022mb/ extends west southwestward from central and northern Louisiana west southwestward to the Texas Rio Grande around Eagle Pass. A trough.. or line.. of low pressure extends south southwestward from western Kansas into northwest Texas and the western Oklahoma panhandle into eastern New Mexico. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our local surface winds are light and variable across the area.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere… a northeastward moving low pressure disturbance is over northern Mexico and southwest Texas. As a result of this upper air wind pattern, the upper level winds over south central Texas and the Austin metro area about 18,000 feet above the ground are southwesterly at 25 to 35 mph.

With the approach of the upper air low pressure disturbance to our west, clouds and rain chances will continue over our area today into early tonight. Scattered rain showers and even a few thunderstorms are possible.

By late tonight in tomorrow, in the wake of the disturbance, skies will partial clear with a dry southwesterly surface wind picking up. As a result, with the help of more sunshine as well as compressional heating ahead of a cold front due tomorrow night, we’ll see daytime highs tomorrow warm to well above seasonal averages.

The strong cold front will move through the area tomorrow night with little sensible weather other than the frontal wind shift. Much cooler temperatures will prevail with abundant sunshine for the middle into the latter part of the week.

Clouds will be on the increase again by late Thursday night into Friday. As another cold front approaches on Sunday, we’ll see slim rain chances develop late Saturday night into Sunday.

Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: My confidence in my forecast is high to very high today through mid and late week. My forecast confidence falls back to medium for late Thursday and Friday through the weekend (timing of clouds and any rainfall chances through the period as well as frontal passage timing on Sunday being the issues).

Have a good Monday…
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

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