Updated 845am CT – Wednesday / 5 March 2014
…. More Sunshine Late Week ….
…. Clouds and Rain/Thunderstorm Chances Saturday into Sunday ….
…. A Little Cooler Late in the Weekend into Early Next Week ….
On this Wednesday morning…. a developing low pressure area /1005mb/ is over western Texas and eastern New Mexico. Another weak low pressure area is over the central Gulf of Mexico /1011mb/. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our local surface winds are southeasterly across our area.
In the upper levels of the atmosphere… an eastward moving low pressure disturbance is over northwest Texas. As a result of this upper air wind pattern, the upper level winds over south central Texas and the Austin metro area about 18,000 feet above the ground are westerly at 30 to 40 mph.
While clouds may break today across the area, some clouds will persist. By later this afternoon, a weak reinforcing cold front will move southeastward across the area ushering in drier air.
Abundant sunshine along with warmer temperatures will prevail tomorrow through Friday.
By late Friday night, low level moisture will increase allowing for increased and thickened cloud cover. An approaching upper air low pressure storm system combined with a surface cold front will increase atmospheric lift and instability. This, with the increased low level moisture, will result in scattered rain showers and thunderstorms beginning as early as midday on Saturday and continuing through the cold frontal passage on Saturday night.
Some post frontal clouds and rain chances.. along with much cooler temperatures.. will linger into Sunday before breaking by Sunday night.
Mostly sunny and warmer temperatures will prevail for the first half of next week.
Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: My confidence in my forecast is high to very high through Friday. My forecast confidence falls back to medium to high for Saturday through the early and middle part of next week (rainfall amounts and exact frontal passage time being the issue).
Have a good Wednesday…
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel