Troy Kimmel Weather

Forecasting Austin and South Central Texas Weather Since 1984

TK’s Weather Discussion….

Updated 845am CT – Friday / 28 February 2014

…. More Sunshine into the Weekend ….
…. Clouds and Rain Chances Increase Late Saturday into Sunday ….
…. Another Cold Front Due Sunday Night …. Much Colder Early Next Week ….

On this Friday morning…. a surface high pressure /1018mb/ is over central and southern Alabama. A cold front extends westward from northern Georgia into Arkansas where it turns into a warm front and extends northwestward into Kansas. A developing low pressure area /996mb/ is over the northern Texas and Oklahoma panhandles northward into southwestern Kansas. A cold front extends southwestward from this developing low into southern New Mexico. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our local surface winds are southwesterly across our area.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere… a massive low pressure area continues over Hudson Bay and eastern and central Canada. There is a vigorous upper level low pressure area is about 500 miles off the northern California coast over the Pacific Ocean. As a result of this upper air wind pattern, the upper level winds over south central Texas and the Austin metro area about 18,000 feet above the ground are northwesterly at 55 to 65 mph.

After morning low clouds “burn off,” we’ll still see some sunshine.. return southerly surface wind and warmer temperatures will prevail today into tomorrow as surface high pressure continues to moves off to the east of the area as low pressure develops to our northwest.

As the south southeasterly surface winds brings back low level moisture, clouds will increase Saturday night into Sunday before yet another cold front is forecast to move across the area by Sunday night into early Monday. Current forecast guidance suggests enough low level moisture and instability available for a round of rain.. rain showers and even a few thunderstorms for Sunday into Sunday night as the front approaches the area and moves through the area. Current guidance suggests upwards of 1/2 inch of rain can be expected late Saturday night into Sunday night as this front moves through.

Skies will partially clear with much cooler temperatures for the first part of next week. Clouds will increase with the reappearance of rain chances by the middle part of next week as an overrunning pattern (moisture “overrunning” the cooler air at the surface) again developing across our area. Clouds will break again by next Thursday as the air mass dries out a bit.

Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: My confidence in my forecast is moderate to high through tomorrow. My forecast confidence falls back to medium to high for Sunday through Sunday night (rain and thunderstorm chances and frontal passage time being the issues) and then again high confidence for Monday into Tuesday of next week.

Have a good Friday…
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

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