Updated 845am CT – Thursday / 27 February 2014
…. More Sunshine ….
…. Clouds and Rain Chances Increase Late in the Weekend ….
…. Another Cold Front Due Sunday Night ….
On this Thursday morning…. a surface high pressure /1024mb/ is overhead and just west of the Austin and south central Texas area. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our local surface winds are light northeasterly across our area.
In the upper levels of the atmosphere… a massive low pressure area.. over Hudson Bay.. is resulting in a trough.. or line.. of low pressure over the northeastern USA. Another strong upper level low pressure is off the coast of western Canada and the Pacific northwest. As a result of this upper air wind pattern, the upper level winds over south central Texas and the Austin metro area about 18,000 feet above the ground are northwesterly at 40 to 50 mph.
A mostly sunny sky.. return southeasterly surface wind and warmer temperatures will prevail into tomorrow as surface high pressure.. overhead now.. moves off to the east of the area.
As the south southeasterly surface winds brings back low level moisture, clouds will increase Saturday into Sunday before yet another cold front is forecast to move across the area by Sunday night into early Monday. Current forecast guidance suggests enough low level moisture and instability available for a round of rain.. rain showers and even a few thunderstorms for Sunday into Sunday night as the front approaches the area and moves through the area.
Skies will partially clear with much cooler temperatures for the first part of next week. Clouds will increase with the reappearance of rain chances by the middle part of next week as an overrunning pattern (moisture “overrunning” the cooler air at the surface). develops across our area.
Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: My confidence in my forecast is moderate to high through tonight (rainfall timing and amounts throw in a bit of uncertainty). My forecast confidence rises back to high for tomorrow through the weekend and into early next week.
Have a good Thursday…
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel