Troy Kimmel Weather

Forecasting Austin and South Central Texas Weather Since 1984

TK’s Weather Discussion

640pm CT – Friday / 22 March 2013

…. Authority: NWS/Storm Prediction Center

Note: This is a very localized threat.. primarily southwest of Austin. The front, that is discussed here at 640pm runs from just north of Giddings westward directly across the Austin Metro Area /just northwest of Austin Bergstrom International Airport/ to just northwest of Dripping Springs to north of Blanco. As the forecasters at SPC mention, the threat is a very low one.. will be very localized.. will be primarily be a hail threat.. and only extends until about 8 or 9pm.  I nevertheless want you to be aware of the situation.  tk

You can see the details at…

Updated 845am CDT Friday / 22 March 2013

Cold Front Sinks Southward into Texas Then Retreating Northward by Tonight ….
Upper Air Disturbance and a Stronger Cold Front Saturday Night ….
Much Cooler.. Below Average.. Temperatures Due by the Sunday into Next Week ….

On this Friday… a deepening area of low pressure is over west central Texas. A stationary front extends from southern Mississippi westward into the low over Texas with a cold front from the low across far west Texas and southern New Mexico. Given this surface pressure pattern, surface winds are south southwesterly across our area of Texas.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere, an upper air trough.. or line.. is located over the northeastern USA with another upper air disturbance digging into the northwestern USA. As a result of this upper air wind flow, our upper level winds are strong westerly with winds over Austin at about 18,500 feet blowing about 60 to 70 mph.

With the southerly wind and the associated surface moisture increase, clouds have really increased as well. A southward.. but weakening.. cold front is moving south into south central Texas and may cause a wind shift and a rather abrupt north-to-south difference in temperatures today. However, with the stronger upper air disturbance still well to our west and northwest, the front will likely pull up stationary either overhead or just to the south of the area by tonight then return back northward as a warm front by tomorrow morning.

Tomorrow will continue with unseasonably warm temperatures and southerly winds. As the atmosphere becomes more moist and unstable, we’ll see a slight chance of rain by
tomorrow then continuing through tomorrow night as the upper air disturbance passes to our north. This will allow a stronger cold front to rapidly move through the area by later tomorrow night. As it moves through the area, widely scattered to scattered rain showers and thunderstorms are possible.

Much cooler and drier air will move into the area in the wake of the late Saturday night through the remainder of the weekend and into early and mid parts of next week with overnight lows falling into the 30s in the outlying and low lying areas and 40s elsewhere over the weekend. Daytime high will be well below average with highs in the 60s to near 70 with a mostly clear to partly cloudy sky prevailing into early next week. Clouds will increase again by the middle part of next week.

Have a good Friday night and weekend…
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

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