Troy Kimmel Weather

Forecasting Austin and South Central Texas Weather Since 1984

TK’s Weather Discussion….

Updated 845am CT – Tuesday / 18 February 2014

…. A Mostly Dry Weather Pattern Over the Next Seven Days ….
…. A Stronger Cold Front Thursday Afternoon ….

On this Tuesday morning…. a weakening stationary front extends southwestward from central Alabama and Mississippi into central Louisiana then trailing off over coastal and south Texas. A trough.. or line.. of low pressure extends south southwestward from eastern Colorado into New Mexico. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our surface winds are light and variable across our area.. becoming more southeasterly as the stationary front to our southeast weakens and washes out.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere… the wind flow over the USA is largely zonal.. that is, west to east. As a result of this upper air wind pattern, the upper level winds over south central Texas and the Austin metro area about 18,000 feet above the ground are west southwesterly at 40 to 50 mph.

The weakening stationary front to our southeast, left over from the cold front that passed through the local area in the midday hours yesterday, is in the process of weakening and washing out with a return southeasterly surface winds by afternoon today.

Even with some patchy morning low clouds as the front weakens to our southeast this morning.. a generally dry weather pattern continues across our area. Abundant midday and afternoon sunshine will allow temperatures to continue to be well above seasonal averages over the next few days. Late night and early morning low cloudiness.. and possible patchy fog and drizzle.. will continue over the coming days as well.

Our next cold front.. a bit stronger but still dry in nature.. will move across our area Thursday afternoon with cooler temperatures to prevail into the weekend.

Clouds will increase by late Sunday into Monday as surface winds become more south southeasterly and low level moisture increases across the area.

Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: My confidence in my forecast is high to very high over the next seven day forecast period.

Have a good Tuesday…
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

Contact me: