Troy Kimmel Weather

Forecasting Austin and South Central Texas Weather Since 1984

TK’s Weather Discussion….

Updated 845am CT – Monday / 17 February 2014

…. A Weak Cold Front Due This Afternoon ….
…. Another Weak Cold Front Thursday …. A Stronger One Due Late Saturday ….
…. A Mostly Dry Weather Pattern Over the Next Seven Days ….

On this Monday morning…. a surface high pressure area is over the eastern Gulf of Mexico and Florida. A trough.. or line.. of low pressure and an associated weak cold front extends southwestward from eastern Oklahoma into southwest Texas. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our surface winds are southwesterly across our area.. becoming gusty northerly as the cold front moves through the area.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere… the wind flow over the USA is largely zonal.. that is, west to east.. with an upper air disturbance moving eastward in that flow over the northern and central plains states. As a result of this upper air wind pattern, the upper level winds over south central Texas and the Austin metro area about 18,000 feet above the ground are west southwesterly at 30 to 40 mph.

Even with some patchy fog this morning.. a generally dry weather pattern continues across our area. Abundant sunshine will allow temperatures to continue to be well above seasonal averages.. over the next few days even as weak cold fronts move down across the area this afternoon and again on Thursday.

Today’s front will return northward by early tomorrow as a warm front with late night and early morning low clouds and patchy fog likely once again.

Another cold front.. dry in nature.. will move across our area late Thursday with a little cooler temperatures to prevail into the weekend. Another cold front looks likely by next Monday. Limited moisture and instability will keep rain chances out of the forecast as these fronts move through the area.

Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: My confidence in my forecast is high to very high over the next seven day forecast period.

Have a good Monday…
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

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