Updated 845am CT Monday / 3 February 2014
…. Clouds with a Slow Warming Trend Into Tomorrow ….
…. Another Stronger Cold Front Due Late Tomorrow into Tomorrow Evening ….
…. Overrunning Clouds and Precipitation Event Thursday into Friday ….
On this Monday morning…. a surface high pressure area is over north Texas and north northeastward into the middle Mississippi Valley and the western Great Lakes. The cold front that passed our area Saturday night extends from the western Carolinas into northwest Florida and the western Gulf of Mexico and then into Mexico where it turns northwestward as a stationary front into far southwest Texas and New Mexico. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our surface winds are north northeasterly across our area.
In the upper levels of the atmosphere… the counterclockwise rotating upper level low pressure continues just south southwest of Hudson Bay with another upper air trough.. or line of low pressure.. extending from the upper level low southwestward into the southwestern USA. As a result of this upper air wind pattern, the upper level winds over south central Texas and the Austin metro area about 18,000 feet above the ground are west southwesterly at 55 to 65 mph.
As the next upper low pressure disturbance approaches us from the west, clouds and moisture are riding up and over the colder air at the surface. I thought initially that we might see some breaks in the clouds today but satellite and guidance now suggests that the clouds will pretty much hold as our temperatures warm back into the 40s to near 50 degrees F.
Tonight into tomorrow, with the passage of the upper level low pressure disturbance, we’ll see even warmer temperatures with a quick shot of rain and rain showers with relatively small rainfall amounts. By midday tomorrow, a drier westerly surface wind flow will develop with the return to sunshine and much warmer temperatures. It will be very temporary, though, as this will be followed by a strong cold frontal passage by late afternoon into the evening with clearing skies, gusty northerly winds and much colder temperatures following.
Wednesday will see a sunny but unseasonably chill day. By Wednesday evening through the night and into Thursday and Friday, another overrunning pattern will develop as another upper air low pressure disturbance moves across the area. With temperatures forecast to be near or just below freezing Thursday night into Friday morning, guidance suggests the possibility of some freezing/frozen precipitation across some of our local area. That same guidance suggests relatively slim precipitation probabilities so I still consider this a “low” probability event. I’ll continue to monitor this possibility closely.
The overrunning pattern will persist into the weekend as temperatures slowly warm before the next cold front arrives late Saturday into early Sunday. Early indications are that skies will clear with colder temperatures by Saturday night into Sunday.
Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: My confidence in my forecast is high today through Wednesday. My forecast confidence falls to low to moderate for Thursday into Friday (particularly low confidence regarding frozen/freezing precipitation chances) and then returns to high confidence for Friday afternoon through the upcoming weekend.
Have a good Monday…
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel