Troy Kimmel Weather

Forecasting Austin and South Central Texas Weather Since 1984

TK’s Weather Discussion….

Updated 845am CT Friday / 31 January 2014

…. A Warming Trend With Increased Clouds Into the Weekend ….
…. A More Unsettled Weather Pattern with A Cold Front on Saturday ….
…. Another Stronger Cold Front Late Tuesday ….

On this Friday morning…. a surface high pressure area is over the southeastern USA. Low pressure is developing from Oklahoma into New Mexico with a southward moving cold front from southern Missouri into central Oklahoma and west Texas into northeastern New Mexico. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our surface winds are moderate southerly across our area.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere… the counterclockwise rotating upper level low pressure continues south of Hudson Bay with another upper air trough.. or line of low pressure.. extending west southwestward into the southwestern USA. As a result of this upper air wind pattern, the upper level winds over south central Texas and the Austin metro area about 18,000 feet above the ground are west southwesterly at 35 to 45 mph.

Clouds have “burned off” nicely across our area today with a southerly surface wind with warmer temperatures expected through tomorrow. Late night low clouds along with patchy drizzle may develop again late tonight into early Saturday.

As the upper air trough to our west northwest moves eastward, it’ll give a push to the surface cold front to our north to move south across the area during the late afternoon into early evening hours Saturday. Even though the front will move well south of the area, an overrunning pattern will persist with clouds and the chance of sprinkles for Saturday through Sunday into Monday with much cooler temperatures prevailing. At this time, I do not expect temperatures to reach near the critical freezing mark during this event with the threat of freezing/frozen precipitation remaining to our distant northwest over parts of north and west Texas. I will continue, though, to monitor this closely and any updates will be posted under the “SPECIAL BRIEFINGS” tab at the top of my web page.

By late Monday into Tuesday, an approaching upper air system will cause somewhat of an “erosion” of the colder air at the surface and we’ll see a quick (but brief) warm up on Tuesday before the upper air trough passes through with a chance of rain showers and isolated thunderstorms as it passes. As the upper air trough completes its move across the area, it will allow additional cold air to move south into Texas with a clearing sky. As a result, I expect overnight freezes over the area on Tuesday night and Wednesday night of next week.

Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: My confidence in my forecast is high today into Saturday then moderate confidence Saturday night through Monday (regarding overrunning rain chances and also regarding exactly how cold the surface air will be). Low to moderate forecast confidence for Monday night and Tuesday (regarding rain chances and time of upper air trough passage) with high to very high confidence for Tuesday night through Wednesday with a clearing skies and much colder temperatures.

Have a good Friday…
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

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