Troy Kimmel Weather

Forecasting Austin and South Central Texas Weather Since 1984

TK’s Weather Discussion….

Updated 845am CT Wednesday / 22 January 2014

…. A Strong Cold Front By Early Tomorrow ….
…. Wintry Precipitation Possibility Tomorrow Night into Early Friday ….
…. Sunshine Returns with a Slow Warming Trend for the Weekend ….

On this Wednesday morning…. a cold front is moving south southeastward from Iowa and northern Kansas and northeast Wyoming. A low pressure area is developing over west Texas.  High pressure is centered.. to our east.. over Mississippi and western Tennessee. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our surface winds are south southwesterly across our area.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere… a counterclockwise rotating upper level low pressure covers eastern Canada and the eastern two thirds of the USA. An upper level low pressure disturbance is rotating eastward as part of the broad low pressure area over the central and eastern USA and is located off the coast of southern California. As a result of this upper air wind pattern, the upper level winds over south central Texas and the Austin metro area about 18,000 feet above the ground are west northwesterly at 35 to 40 mph.

As surface high pressure continues to move east of the area.. a dry and warmer southwesterly surface wind flow will prevail today. As winds pick, please note the high fire danger given the dry conditions.

By after midnight tonight, the stronger cold front.. from the north.. will arrive about the same time that we see the influence of the upper air disturbance to our west.. and the subtropical jet stream and its associated mid and high level moisture.. overrun the colder air. As upper air disturbances move overhead and create atmospheric lift, we’ll see a better chance of light precipitation beginning by midday tomorrow through tomorrow night with much colder temperatures. As temperatures fall below freezing tomorrow night, there is a chance we could see rain change to light sleet and snow with the precipitation continuing into the early morning hours Friday. Some very light accumulations are possible.

As the upper level disturbances depart the area, a more stable and warmer weather pattern will develop.. with abundant sunshine.. over the upcoming weekend.

Another strong cold front will arrive about daybreak Monday with temperatures turning colder again.

Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: My confidence in my forecast is very high through tomorrow.. then falls to low to medium for tomorrow night and Friday morning (some question on precipitation types – freezing or frozen – as well as amounts/accumulations). My forecast confidence rises back to high to very high for Saturday and Sunday into early next week.

Have a good Wednesday…
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

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