Troy Kimmel Weather

Forecasting Austin and South Central Texas Weather Since 1984

TK’s Weather Discussion

Updated 845am CDT Monday / 18 March 2013

A Cold Front Moving South Southeastward Through Texas ….
Clouds Increase with Some Rain Chances by Thursday and Thursday Night ….
A Stronger Cold Front Friday Morning with Much Cooler Temps for the Weekend ….

On this Monday… a broad area of surface low pressure extends westward from middle and western Tennessee into the southern plains with an attendant cold from running from middle Tennessee across the ArkLaTex region into north central and west Texas. Given this surface pressure pattern, the south of the front, surface winds are southerly across our area of Texas.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere, a broad upper air trough.. or line.. is located over the central plains and southward into Texas. As a result of this upper air wind flow, our upper level winds are moderate to strong westerly with winds over Austin at about 18,500 feet blowing about 50 to 60 mph.

The weak cold surface cold front.. to our north.. will strengthen and move south southeastward through our area today as the axis of the upper level low pressure area passes to the east of our local area. Drier air will begin to move into our area by midday with cooler air moving southeastward into the area tonight into tomorrow. As the high behind the front moves eastward, surface winds will turn more easterly by later tomorrow through tomorrow night into Wednesday.

By Thursday into Thursday night, surface winds turn more south southeasterly and surface moisture will be on the increase with clouds increasing as well. As the atmosphere becomes more moist and unstable, we’ll see a slight chance of rain ahead of a stronger cold front due in the area about daybreak on Friday. Current NWS rainfall forecast guidance suggests than rainfall will be 1/4 inch or less and mainly in areas east of the IH 35 corridor.

Much cooler and drier air will move into the area Friday through the weekend with overnight lows falling into the 30s in the outlying and low lying areas Friday night as well as Saturday night. Daytime high will be well below average with highs in the 60s. A clear to partly cloudy sky will prevail.

Have a good Monday night and Tuesday…
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

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