Troy Kimmel Weather

Forecasting Austin and South Central Texas Weather Since 1984

TK’s Weather Discussion

Updated 845am CST Thursday / 14 February 2013

A Dry and Stable Weather Pattern Continues…
A Dry  Cold Front Due Early Tomorrow…
Another Cold Front with a Slim Chance of Rain on Monday…
Stronger Cold Front with Perhaps Better Chance of Rain Next Thursday…

On this Thursday… surface high pressure is situated over the lower Mississippi Valley with another high pressure area to our west over the four corners region. A trough.. or line.. of low pressure (between the two high pressure areas) runs south southwestward from southeastern Colorado into southwest Texas. As a result of this pressure pattern, surface winds are light southerly across our area.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere, a broad trough of upper air low pressure extends southward from Canada over the eastern half of the USA. As a result of this upper air wind flow, our upper level winds are moderate northwesterly.

A dry and stable weather pattern continues across the area. A “reinforcing” surface cold front will move across the area.. bringing in cooler air and continuing the dry and stable weather pattern.. tomorrow morning.

A dry and seasonable weather pattern will prevail.. with slightly below seasonal temperatures.. tomorrow night into Saturday.

High pressure will move eastward with a return south southeasterly surface wind by Saturday night into Sunday into Monday with the return of late night and early morning low clouds by Sunday night into Monday morning.

Another cold front will move across the area by next Monday evening with widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms possible. Drier and cooler air will move into the area in the wake of the front by Monday night into Tuesday.

Another.. perhaps stronger.. cold front will move through Texas by next Thursday. Longer range guidance makes me think this system will be more vigorous and potentially more of a rain maker for Texas. It may also give parts of north and east Texas and adjoining areas of Oklahoma, Arkansas and Louisiana a threat of severe weather as well.

Have a good Thursday night and Friday…
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

Contact me: