Updated 845am CT Thursday / 16 January 2014
…. A Dry and Stable Progressive Weather Pattern Continues ….
On this Thursday morning…. high pressure is over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. Another southward moving cold front is over Kansas to our north. A trough.. or line.. of low pressure extends southwestward from Oklahoma into southwest Texas. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our surface winds are southwesterly across our area.
In the upper levels of the atmosphere… a deep counterclockwise rotating broad upper level line.. or trough.. of low pressure covers the eastern two thirds of the USA with the main line of upper air low pressure extending southward from the Great Lakes states southward into the southeastern USA and into the central Gulf of Mexico. As a result of this upper air wind pattern, the upper level winds over south central Texas and the Austin metro area about 18,000 feet above the ground are west northwesterly at 45 to 55 mph.
Being on the west side of the upper level trough, a dry and stable weather pattern continues over the area. The cold front to the north will move southward quickly and move into Texas later today into tonight. With cold fronts moving through pretty progressively.. or regularly.. it isn’t giving the atmosphere time for low level moisture to return from the Gulf of Mexico. As a result, there is no rain in the forecast over the next seven days.
There are some indications of a little better return of south southeasterly surface winds and more low level moisture by late in the weekend into the early part of next week; however, the only thing I will mention, at this time, is an increase in cloud cover.
Another cold front will pass through the area by Monday night into Tuesday morning.. again, basically reinforcing the dry and stable weather pattern across the area.
Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: My confidence in my forecast is very high over the next seven day period.
Have a good Thursday…
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel