Troy Kimmel Weather

Forecasting Austin and South Central Texas Weather Since 1984

TK’s Weather Discussion….

Updated 845am CT Wednesday / 15 January 2014

…. A Dry and Stable Progressive Weather Pattern Continues ….

On this Wednesday morning…. a cold front extends southwestward from the Appalachians to the mouth of the Mississippi River into the northwestern Gulf of Mexico and then into northeastern Mexico south of Brownsville then northwestward into far west Texas around El Paso. Surface high pressure.. behind the front.. is centered over northwest Texas.. northwest Oklahoma and western Kansas. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our surface winds are northwesterly across our area.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere… a deep counterclockwise rotating broad upper level line.. or trough.. of low pressure covers the eastern two thirds of the USA with the main line of upper air low pressure extending southward from the Great Lakes states southward into the Louisiana coastal waters and into the western Gulf of Mexico. As a result of this upper air wind pattern, the upper level winds over south central Texas and the Austin metro area about 18,000 feet above the ground have increased from the north northwest at 80 to 90 mph.

Being on the west side of the upper level trough and with the passage of our most recent surface cold front in the 4pm hour yesterday, a dry and stable weather pattern continues over the area. With these cold fronts moving through pretty progressively.. or regularly.. it isn’t giving the atmosphere time for low level moisture to  return from the Gulf of Mexico. As a result, there is no rain in the forecast over the next six or seven days.

Another cold front will surge across the area tomorrow night with another surge of drier and cooler air moving into the area under a mostly clear sky. In short, this front will allow for the reinforcement of the current dry and stable air mass in place across the area.

There are some indications of a little better return of south southeasterly surface winds and more low level moisture by the early part of next week; however, the only thing I will mention, at this time, is an increase in cloud cover.

Another relatively weak cold front will pass through the area by Monday night into Tuesday morning.

Longer range computer forecast guidance still suggests the potential for another outbreak of arctic air out of the polar regions of northwest Canada beyond the seven day forecast period. I’ll continue to monitor for this possibility and will keep you informed.

Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: My confidence in my forecast is very high over the next seven day period.

Have a good Wednesday…
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

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