Troy Kimmel Weather

Forecasting Austin and South Central Texas Weather Since 1984

TK’s Weather Discussion….

Updated 845am CT Tuesday / 14 January 2014

…. A Progressive Weather Pattern Continues with Cold Fronts Every Few Days ….
…. A Dry and Stable Weather Pattern Over the Next Seven Days ….

On this Tuesday morning…. a cold front extends southwestward from a low pressure area over northern Georgia southward across the Florida panhandle into the Gulf of Mexico. Another trough.. or line.. of low pressure extends southwestward from northwestern Missouri into southwest Texas with a cold front moving southward from southeastern Nebraska and central Kansas into Colorado. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our surface winds are variable across our area.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere… a broad counterclockwise rotating upper level line.. or trough.. of low pressure extends southward through the eastern two thirds of the USA. As a result, the upper level winds over south central Texas and the Austin metro area about 18,000 feet above the ground are west northwesterly at 50 to 60 mph.

A dry and stable air continues over the area.

Another dry cold front will move through the area by late tonight into early tomorrow morning. This system will basically “reinforce” the air mass in place across the area with more sunshine late week. With the fronts moving through pretty progressively.. or regularly.. it isn’t giving the atmosphere time for low level moisture to  return from the Gulf of Mexico. As a result, there is no rain in the forecast as these fronts move through over the next seven days.

Another cold front will surge across the area late Thursday night into Friday morning with another surge of drier and slightly cooler air under a partly cloudy sky.

Longer range computer forecast guidance suggests the potential for another outbreak of arctic air out of the polar regions of northwest Canada by about eight or nine days down the road. I’ll continue to monitor this situation and will keep you informed.

Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: My confidence in my forecast is very high over the next seven day period.

Have a good Tuesday…
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

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