Updated 845am CT Monday / 13 January 2014
…. A Progressive Weather Pattern with Cold Fronts Every Few Days ….
…. A Dry and Stable Weather Pattern Over the Next Seven Days ….
On this Monday morning…. a cold front extends southwestward from the Great Lakes into central Arkansas and overhead of our south central Texas area then westward into the Rio Grande country and into northern Mexico. Surface high pressure area.. centered over the intermountain west.. is building eastward into the area in the wake of the front. As a result of this surface weather pattern, behind the cold front, surface winds are increasing north northwesterly across our area.
In the upper levels of the atmosphere… a broad counterclockwise rotating upper level line.. or trough.. of low pressure extends southward through the central USA into Texas. As a result, the upper level winds over south central Texas and the Austin metro area about 18,000 feet above the ground are westerly at 50 to 60 mph.
As the cold front passed earlier this morning, drier and more stable air has moved into the area. It looks like sunshine with seasonal temperatures over the coming days.
Another dry cold front will move through the area by late tomorrow night into early Wednesday morning. This system will basically “reinforce” the air mass in place across the area with more sunshine late week. With the fronts moving through pretty progressively.. or regularly.. it isn’t giving the atmosphere time for low level moisture to return from the Gulf of Mexico. As a result, there is no rain in the forecast as these fronts move through over the next seven days.
Another cold front will surge across the area late Thursday night into Friday morning with another surge of drier and slightly cooler air under a partly cloudy sky.
Longer range computer forecast guidance suggests the potential for another outbreak of arctic air out of the polar regions of northwest Canada by about eight or nine days down the road. I’ll continue to monitor this situation and will keep you informed.
Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: My confidence in my forecast is very high over the next seven day period.
Have a good Monday…
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel