Updated 845am CT Friday / 10 January 2014
…. Clouds and Rain Chances Persist with Passing Upper Air Disturbance ….
…. A Drier and More Stable Weather Pattern Tonight into Next Week ….
On this Friday morning…. a massive surface high pressure area is over the western Atlantic Ocean east of the Maine coast. A weak surface low pressure area is over western Kansas with a cold front extending southwestward across the Texas panhandle into New Mexico. As a result of this surface weather pattern, surface winds are southerly across our area.
In the upper levels of the atmosphere… a broad counterclockwise rotating upper level low pressure trough extends southward through the central USA into Mexico and the southern Baja Peninsula. Embedded disturbances.. acting like spokes on a bicycle wheel.. are rotating counterclockwise around this upper level low. As a result, the upper level winds over south central Texas and the Austin metro area about 18,000 feet above the ground are southwesterly at 60 to 70 mph.
The upper air low pressure disturbances to our west and southwest will move eastward and increase atmospheric instability and lift with a better chance of rain showers and even a few thunderstorms.. particularly this afternoon in areas east through north of Austin. As the disturbances move eastward overhead by late this afternoon and then off to our east and northeast, the weak cold front to our northwest will move through the area allowing dry and more stable air.. with a return to sunshine.. to return for the weekend.
Forecast guidance strongly suggests that another dry slightly stronger cold frontal passage by late Sunday night with simply a reinforcement of drier and more stable air for the first half of next week. Temperatures are expected to be near seasonal averages for the first half of next week.
Longer range computer forecast guidance suggests the potential for another Arctic air outbreak out of the polar regions of northwest Canada by about eight or nine days down the road. I’ll continue to monitor this situation and will keep you informed.
Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: My confidence in my forecast is high today.. then very high tonight through the weekend and into the middle part of next week.
Have a good Friday…
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel