Updated 845am CT Monday / 23 December 2013

…. A Dry and Stable Weather Pattern ….
…. Passing Upper Air Storm System with a Few Sprinkles Christmas Day ….
…. Dry Weather Pattern Late Week through the Weekend ….

On this Monday morning…. a surface high pressure area extends south southeastward from the Dakotas to over Missouri then south southwestward over Texas. A low pressure trough.. or line.. of low pressure extends southward from southeastern Colorado and southwestern Kansas into New Mexico. As a result of this surface weather pattern, surface winds are light northeasterly across our area.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere… a deep upper level low pressure trough is over the central USA. As a result, the upper level winds over south central Texas and the Austin metro area about 18,000 feet above the ground are west southwesterly at 65 to 75 mph.

A dry and stable weather pattern continues as we start the Christmas holiday week. Surface high pressure.. overhead now.. will move eastward and return a south southeasterly surface wind as early as tomorrow.

Another upper level low pressure will sweep eastward across Texas on Christmas Day but the atmosphere overhead will be moisture starved so we’ll increase cloud cover but only a few sprinkles are expected. With the passage of the system, clouds will break early Thursday.

Another extended period of dry and stable weather.. with near to slightly below average temperatures.. is expected for the latter part of the week through the weekend.

Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: My confidence in my forecast is very high through tomorrow and tomorrow night. For Christmas Day, my forecast confidence falls high (whether or not rain occurs). My forecast confidence returns to very high for Thursday through the weekend.

Have a good Monday…
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel