Troy Kimmel Weather

Forecasting Austin and South Central Texas Weather Since 1984

TK’s Weather Discussion….

Updated 845am CT Tuesday / 17 December 2013

…. Drier Weather.. Sunshine.. Warming Trend Continues ….
…. Clouds and Humidity Picks Up Tonight and Tomorrow Through Late Week ….
…. Upper Air Storm System and Cold Front Due Next Late Friday into the Weekend ….

On this Tuesday morning…. a surface high pressure area extends from the Texas coast to the Florida panhandle with another surface high is over eastern Utah and western Colorado. A trough.. or line.. of low pressure separates the two and extends southward from southwestern Oklahoma into far southwest Texas. A southward moving cold front extends southwestern Pennsylvania into western Tennessee and northeastern Arkansas where it turns stationary and extends northwestward into the plains. As a result of this surface weather pattern, surface winds are west southwesterly across our area.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere… an upper level low pressure trough is over eastern Canada and the eastern half of the USA. A ridge.. or line.. of upper level high pressure is over the western coastal areas of Mexico. Another upper level low pressure disturbance is over the Pacific Ocean well west of the San Francisco Bay area of northern California. As a result, the upper level winds over south central Texas and the Austin metro area about 18,000 feet above the ground are northwesterly 25 to 35 mph.

A dry and stable weather pattern continues with abundant sunshine expected through today with temperatures slowly warming up.

By later tonight into tomorrow through the latter part of the week, southerly surface winds will return low level moisture with clouds becoming more common with late night and early morning low clouds and light drizzle possible particularly Thursday and Friday morning.

An upper air low pressure disturbance will move eastward into northern Mexico and the southwestern United States by late in the week and then pass over the area with a chance of rain and even a few thunderstorms. As the disturbance moves by, another cold front will settle southward in the wake of the system into the area with some overrunning clouds and rainfall possible Saturday and Saturday night.

Clouds will break with sunshine returning to the area by Sunday into early next week.

Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: My confidence in my forecast is very high today through tomorrow. For Thursday through Saturday, my forecast confidence falls to medium (exact timing of rain, exact rain chances and the timing of the cold front still a big question). My forecast confidence returns to high to very high for Sunday into early next week.

Have a good Tuesday…
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

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