Updated 845am CST Friday / 8 November 2013
…. Clouds Come and Go through the Weekend into Next Week ….
…. A Strong Cold Front Moves Through with Slim Rain Chances Tuesday Night ….
On this Friday morning…. surface high pressure is over northern Louisiana. A trough.. or line.. of low pressure is deepening and extending south southwestward from eastern Colorado into New Mexico. As a result of this surface weather pattern, surface winds are variable over our area.
In the upper levels of the atmosphere… most of the USA is in a zonal (or west-to-east) upper level wind pattern. There is an upper level disturbance over western Mexico that is scooping up Pacific moisture and some of that upper level moisture is streaming into Texas from the southwest. As a result of the overall upper level wind flow, the upper level winds over south central Texas and the Austin metro area about 18,000 feet above the ground are southwesterly 25 to 35 mph.
The cooler surface air.. that has built into the area from the northwest following our mid week cold front.. continues even though the upper air low over northern Mexico has brought more mid and upper clouds into the area that I thought we would see when I updated this discussion yesterday.
This pattern will likely continue into the weekend as the surface high pressure area.. to our east.. continues to move to the east and our south southeasterly surface wind continues to pick up with an associated increase in low level moisture.
Our next big weather and air mass change will come by late Tuesday into Tuesday night as a strong south southeastward moving cold front approaches and moves through Texas. Rain chances reappear as the front moves through our area, but the fast forward movement of the front will keep rainfall amounts limited. Much cooler temperatures are likely for the latter part of next week.
Longer range guidance suggests another upper level low pressure storm system will move west-to-east across Texas by next weekend with a good chance of rain.
Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: High forecast confidence through the weekend (very slim rain chances.. sprinkles.. maybe?) then high to very confidence Monday into Tuesday. I have moderate forecast confidence for next Tuesday night into Thursday (regarding exact cold front intensity and passage timing and associated rain chances and exactly how chilly it will turn).
Have a good Friday…
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel