Updated 845am CST Wednesday / 6 November 2013
…. Upper Air Low Pressure System and Cold Front Currently Moving Through ….
…. Plenty of Sun.. Drier and Cooler Weather Due Late Week into the Weekend ….
…. Clouds Increase Late Weekend into Early Next Week ….
On this Wednesday morning…. a southeastward moving cold front extends southwestward from a low pressure area over eastern Iowa into northwestern Arkansas and then southwestward across our area and into the Rio Grande country around Del Rio. Cooler and drier surface high pressure.. behind the front.. is over Utah and western Colorado. As a result of this surface weather pattern, surface winds are shifting north northwesterly over our area as the front moves through.
In the upper levels of the atmosphere… a slowly eastward moving upper level low pressure trough.. or line of low pressure.. extends southward from Hudson Bay through the northern plains and into west Texas. As a result, the upper level winds over south central Texas and the Austin metro area about 18,000 feet above the ground are strong southwesterly at 45 to 55 mph.
As the upper level low pressure trough just west of us continues to move slowly eastward, we’ve seen rain showers in the overnight and early morning hours but, honestly, it has not been the rainfall amounts that we were talking about earlier. With the upper level trough of low pressure.. and the associated cold front.. will move quickly through the local area by midday into early afternoon with clouds and rain chances decreasing quickly thereafter this afternoon through tonight. With the quickly approaching cold front and the fact it’ll move through the area by midday today, I am reducing forecast rainfall amounts in my forecast.
Drier and cooler weather with abundant sunshine will prevail for Thursday and Friday and through the weekend.
Clouds will increase again by the early part of next week as south southeasterly surface winds return to the area.
Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: High to very high forecast confidence through the next 6 to 12 hours (obviously, a little uncertainty regarding exact rainfall amounts) then very high confidence late Wednesday through Friday and the weekend with moderate confidence for early next week (regarding potential rain chances which I haven’t included in my forecast yet).
Have a good Wednesday…
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel