Updated 845am CST Monday / 4 November 2013
…. Clouds and Rain Chances to Start the New Week ….
…. Upper Air Low Pressure System and Cold Front To Move Through Mid Week ….
…. Plenty of Sun.. Drier and Cooler Weather Due Late Week into the Weekend ….
On this Monday morning…. a cold front extends southwestward from the eastern Dakotas into central Nebraska and Kansas then west southwestward through northern New Mexico and Arizona. Surface high pressure is over the northeastern USA. As a result of this surface weather pattern, surface winds are south southeasterly across our area.
In the upper levels of the atmosphere… a slowly eastward moving upper level low pressure trough.. or line of low pressure.. is over the western USA from Montana south southwestward into southern California and Arizona. As a result, the upper level winds over south central Texas and the Austin metro area about 18,000 feet above the ground are strong southwesterly at 50 to 60 mph.
As we begin the new week, the latest in a series of upper level low pressure troughs is slowly moving eastward out of the western USA. As it has strengthened and moved eastward, it has started returning low level moisture to our area and, at the same time, bringing upper level moisture and clouds from the Pacific Ocean northeastward over Texas. In other words, we’re “priming” our atmosphere for another rainfall event as the upper level low pressure trough moves overhead and then northeastward away from the area midweek.
This upcoming rainfall event.. based on the latest NWS rainfall forecast guidance.. will, in general and on average, likely yield another 1 to 2 inch rainfall across the area with isolated heavier totals. This could cause additional localized flooding problems in areas where we’ve seen heavy rain in the last few weeks.
Once the upper level low pressure passes, an associated cold front will surge southeastward across the area by late Wednesday. Clouds will break quickly and rain chances will drop from the forecast in the wake of the front.
Drier and cooler weather with abundant sunshine will prevail for Thursday and Friday and through the weekend.
Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: High to very high forecast confidence through mid week (a little uncertainty regarding exact rainfall amounts) then very high confidence late Wednesday through Friday and the weekend.
Have a good Monday…
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel