Updated 845am CDT Thursday / 24 October 2013
…. A Wake Backdoor Cold Front Early Friday Morning ….
…. Rain Chances in our Weekend Forecast ….
…. Watching A Storm System for the Middle and Latter Part of Next Week ….
On this Thursday morning…. a cold front extends southwestward from central Arkansas across extreme north Texas and the Red River region into northwest Texas and then as a stationary front into Colorado. A surface high pressure area is over the southeastern USA. As a result of this surface weather pattern, surface winds are light southerly across our area.
In the upper levels of the atmosphere… a eastward moving trough.. or line.. of upper level low pressure extends southward from eastern Canada into the eastern half of the USA. Another upper air low pressure disturbance is over California. As a result, the upper level winds over south central Texas and the Austin metro area about 18,000 feet above the ground are northwesterly at 10 to 20 mph.
A stable weather pattern continues across south central Texas. A more southerly surface wind has become more established across the area with a very slow return of gulf moisture.
By early tomorrow morning, a weakening “back door” type cold front, currently moving into Texas from the north and northeast, will settle south southwestward into our area before it washes out in advance of the stronger low pressure storm system, currently over California, expected to be moving into the desert southwest by then. Low level moisture will increase rapidly by tomorrow night into Saturday so, as that next upper air system moves across Texas over the weekend, we’ll see relatively good rain chances return to the forecast for our area as the system moves by to our north creating atmospheric lift as it passes.
We’ll see the rain chances decrease as the upper air storm system moves off to the northeast and the weather pattern stabilizes by early next week with a decrease in clouds and rain chances and return to more sunshine for the area.
As mentioned yesterday, by the middle and latter part of next week, a potent low pressure storm system has been forecast to move eastward through the central and southern plains states with a return to rain and thunderstorm chances. The latest guidance has weakened the overall weather pattern and has slowed the advance of an associated cold front. I’ll continue to watch this system…
Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: Very high forecast confidence through Friday.. then moderate to high confidence for the weekend into the early part of next week as it regards the progress and timing of upper air low pressure and fronts over the southern plains and any associated rain chances. My forecast confidence falls to very low for next middle into latter part of next week as it regards the intensity and timing of the projected storm system and associated cold front as well as associated rain chances.
Have a good Thursday…
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel