Troy Kimmel Weather

Forecasting Austin and South Central Texas Weather Since 1984

TK’s Weather Discussion….

Updated 845am CDT Friday / 11 October 2013

…. High Humidity Levels ….
…. Continuing to Prime the Atmosphere for a Beneficial Extended Rainfall Event ….
…. Low Pressure/Cold Front Becomes the Factor for the Weekend into Next Week ….

On this Friday morning…. a high pressure area is over the northeastern USA and extends southwestward into the Mississippi Valley. A trough.. or line.. of low pressure extends southward through the plains states from a surface low over western Nebraska into western Oklahoma and west Texas. As a result of this surface weather pattern, surface winds are south southeasterly across our area.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere… a deep eastward moving area of upper level low pressure trough extends southward over the western half of the USA. An upper level high is over western Gulf of Mexico. As a result, the upper level winds over south central Texas and the Austin metro area about 18,000 feet above the ground are  southwesterly 20 to 30 mph.

The surface high pressure area.. over the eastern USA.. in combination with deepening low pressure over the western USA continues to allow for our south southeasterly surface winds and the continued increase of low level moisture to our area.

We are truly “priming” the atmosphere for what I think will be an extended beneficial rainfall event for the period beginning tomorrow through the middle part of next week. The air mass overhead has become more unstable as the upper level low.. over the western USA.. and the associated surface low pressure area and cold front will move deeper into Texas by late tonight into Saturday. This initial front, however, will weaken as a strong disturbance.. within the upper air trough.. moves off to the northeast and taking away the support for the front to move much further eastward. Latest guidance continues to suggest that as the front washes out overhead tomorrow night into Sunday and Monday as a another stronger upper level low and front moves out of the Rockies by Tuesday and Tuesday night. As the upper air disturbance moves by to our north, this second cold front will move through our area on Wednesday with dryer and cooler temperatures moving into the area mid week.

In this interim period.. Saturday through Tuesday.. with the moist unstable air mass.. we’ll see more cloud cover and increased rain chances. As time passes, this continues to appear as an extended beneficial rainfall event in the offing with upwards of 1 to 4 inches of rainfall possible before the stronger cold front moves through next Wednesday. I’ll continue to watch this for you.

Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: Very high forecast confidence through today.. then high confidence for the weekend into the middle part of next week as it regards the progress and timing of upper air low pressure and fronts over the southern plains and any associated rain chances.

Have a good Friday…
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

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