Troy Kimmel Weather

Forecasting Austin and South Central Texas Weather Since 1984

TK’s Weather Discussion….

Updated 845am CDT Monday / 7 October 2013

…. A Stable Dry Weather Pattern ….
…. Another Cold Front Approaches by Next Weekend with a Chance of Rain ….

On this Monday morning…. a high pressure area is over the Rockies and the western plains states. A cold front.. the one that passed the local area on Saturday afternoon.. extends southward from Pennsylvania into Georgia and northwest Florida into the Gulf of Mexico. As a result of this surface weather pattern, surface winds are north northwesterly over our area.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere… a deep upper level low pressure trough extends southward from the Great Lakes states into the Ohio Valley. Another low pressure trough is over the Pacific Northwest. A ridge of upper level high pressure is over western Mexico and the southwestern USA. As a result, the upper level winds over south central Texas and the Austin metro area about 18,000 feet above the ground are northwesterly 15 to 25 mph.

In the wake of Saturday‚Äôs cold front… a dry and stable weather pattern continues across the area.

By later tonight into tomorrow.. the surface high pressure area.. over the western plains.. will shift eastward allowing for our surface winds to return to the south and southeast. Low level moisture will begin to return to the area with a more moist weather pattern with a return to a partly cloudy sky and some late night and early morning low cloudiness for the middle and latter part of the week into the weekend.

Another low pressure area and cold front will move into Texas by Saturday and Saturday night. Latest guidance, however, is delaying the progress of the front until early next week as a second front moves out of the Rockies. Even so, the atmosphere will grow more unstable with the approach of this first front and I will keep rain chances beginning Saturday and continuing Sunday and maybe into the early part of next week until the second front clears the area.

Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: Very high forecast confidence through Friday.. then medium confidence for the weekend into early next week as it regards the fronts over the southern plains and any associated rain chances.

Have a good Monday…
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel