Troy Kimmel Weather

Forecasting Austin and South Central Texas Weather Since 1984

TK’s Weather Discussion

Updated 845am CST Thursday / 7 March 2013

A Stable Late Winter Weather Pattern Continues …
Increasing Clouds with a Chance of Rain by Tomorrow Night into the Weekend …
Our Next Cold Front Due in the Early Morning Hours on Sunday …

On this Thursday… a surface high pressure area extends southward along the Mississippi River into the northern Gulf of Mexico. Another high is over southern Colorado and western New Mexico. A trough.. or line.. of low pressure extends southward between the two high pressure areas from eastern Colorado southward into eastern New Mexico. Given this surface pressure pattern, surface winds are southerly across our area of Texas as the surface high continues to move east of the area.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere, a strong upper level low pressure is off the eastern seaboard of the USA with another one moving ashore onto the west coast of the USA. Between the two areas of low pressure.. a ridge of upper air high pressure extends northward from northeastern Mexico into Texas. As a result of this upper air wind flow, our upper level winds are light to moderate westerly with winds over Austin at about 18,500 feet being west northwesterly around 25 to 35 mph.

The surface high.. that is now east of the area.. will continue to move eastward into the southeasterly USA into tomorrow with a strengthening south southeasterly wind locally.

By tomorrow into the weekend, clouds and humidity will be on the increase as low pressure deepens to our west. Some light rain will develop as early as late tomorrow night with a better chance of rain showers and thunderstorms by Saturday night into Sunday as the atmosphere becomes more unstable and a cold front approaches the area.

The cold front will move through the area Sunday morning with the best chance of rain showers and thunderstorms in the 6am to 10am time frame. Current NWS rainfall guidance suggests that we could see around 1/2 inch of rain in the Saturday into Sunday time frame.

Slightly cooler air will prevail in the wake of the front Sunday night into the first half of next week.

Have a good Thursday night and Friday…
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

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