Troy Kimmel Weather

Forecasting Austin and South Central Texas Weather Since 1984

TK’s Weather Discussion….

Updated 845am CDT Wednesday / 25 September 2013

…. A Dry and Stable Weather Pattern Continues ….
…. A Cold Front Due Late Saturday Night into Early Sunday with a Chance of Rain ….

On this Wednesday morning…. a low pressure area is over the Missouri bootheel with a weak cold front into east Texas. Another low pressure area is over eastern Colorado with a trough.. or line.. of low pressure extending south southwestward through eastern New Mexico.  As a result of this surface weather pattern, surface winds are mostly light and variable over our area.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere… a trough.. or line.. of upper level low pressure is moving eastward through the Ohio Valley region with another.. much stronger.. upper level low moving ashore from the Pacific Ocean along the west coast of Washington and Oregon. Upper level high extends from northeastern Mexico ans south Texas into the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. As a result, the upper level winds over south central Texas and the Austin metro area about 18,000 feet above the ground are northwesterly 10 to 20 mph.

As indicated by the clear sky overhead, the dry and stable weather pattern prevails across the area.

By Thursday into Friday, with surface high pressure well to the east, a south southeasterly surface wind will become reestablished across the area with an increase in low level moisture.

By Saturday night into early Sunday, the strong upper level low over the Pacific northwest will move eastward and, as a result, a southeastward moving cold front will surge through Texas with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms expected across the area. Forecast rainfall amounts continue to be between 3/4 and 1 1/4 inch locally between 7am Saturday and 7pm Sunday.

Once the front passes by mid to late morning Sunday, rain chances and clouds will decrease with plenty of sunshine.. lower humidity and cooler temperatures for Sunday through Sunday night and early next week.

The tropics are quiet with no tropical cyclone development expected over the Atlantic basin over the next 24 hours.

Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: High to very high forecast confidence through the next seven day forecast period.
Have a good Wednesday…
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
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