Updated 845am CDT Tuesday / 24 September 2013

…. A Dry and Stable Weather Pattern ….
…. A Cold Front Due Late Saturday Night into Early Sunday with a Chance of Rain ….

On this Tuesday morning…. a surface high pressure is centered over the St. Lawrence River Valley and the northeastern USA. A low pressure area is over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico with a stationary front from the northeastern Gulf into the low then southward into the western Gulf. Another low pressure area is over northeastern Kansas and southeastern Nebraska with a weak cold front extending southwestward through central Oklahoma and west Texas.  As a result of this surface weather pattern, surface winds are mostly light and variable over our area.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere… a trough.. or line.. of upper level low pressure is moving eastward through the northern and central plains and into the Mississippi Valley. As a result, winds over south central Texas and the Austin metro area about 18,000 feet above the ground are northwesterly 25 to 35 mph.

The dry and stable weather pattern prevails across the area.

By Thursday into Friday, with surface high pressure well to the east, a south southeasterly surface wind will become reestablished across the area with an increase in low level moisture.

By Saturday night into early Sunday, a east southeastward moving cold front will move through Texas with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms across the area. Once the front passes by mid to late morning Sunday, rain chances and clouds will decrease with plenty of sunshine.. lower humidity and cooler temperatures for Sunday through Sunday night and early next week.

The tropics are quiet with no tropical cyclone development expected over the Atlantic basin over the next 24 hours.

Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: High to very high forecast confidence through the next seven day forecast period.

Have a good Tuesday…
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel