Updated 845am CDT Monday / 16 September 2013
…. Thunderstorm Chances Continue Through Much of the Seven Day Forecast ….
…. Continuing to Watch Ingrid and the Northwest Caribbean Sea ….
…. Weak Cold Front to Move Into Texas by Early Next Weekend …
On this Monday morning…. surface high pressure continues over the southeastern USA while a southeastward moving weak cold front extends westward from western Kentucky and northern Arkansas into Oklahoma and west Texas. As a result of this surface weather pattern, surface winds are easterly over our area.
In the upper levels of the atmosphere… an upper level high pressure area extends from central Texas eastward into the southeastern USA. Being on the west side of the upper air high, winds over south central Texas and the Austin metro area about 18,000 feet above the ground are relatively light southeasterly.
Abundant atmospheric moisture will continue over the coming days and combine with daytime heating and atmospheric instability to produce widely scattered rain shower and thunderstorm development. While well south of our local area, tropical cyclone Ingrid is moving ashore in Mexico several hundred miles south of Brownsville and some of that moisture is making its way northward. A partly cloudy to mostly cloudy sky will otherwise prevail locally.
By later in the week, another cold front will move southward into northwest Texas and this front, unlike a couple of the these fronts we’ve seen lately, will have enough upper air support, through a passing upper level low pressure area, to bring the front through the local area around or just after sunrise on Saturday. Ahead of and along the front, scattered rain showers and thunderstorms will affect the area Friday into early Saturday.
Although we must watch residual moisture from Ingrid which could ultimately result in more clouds and rain chances behind the front, at this point, I think we’ll see a more stable weather pattern in the wake of the front later in the day Saturday into Saturday night and Sunday. Based on current guidance, I expect a partly cloudy sky with northeasterly surface winds and temperatures down only a few degrees.
Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: High forecast confidence through Friday night and Saturday.. then a decrease in confidence to medium Saturday night into Sunday.
Have a good Monday…
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel