Troy Kimmel Weather

Forecasting Austin and South Central Texas Weather Since 1984

TK’s Weather Discussion

Updated 845am CST Tuesday / 5 March 2013

High Wildfire Danger Tonight into Early Tonight …
Windy and Cooler Temps in the Wake of Early Morning Cold Front …
A Chance of Rain by Late Week into the Weekend …

On this Tuesday… a cold front extends from a surface low pressure area over the Tennessee/Ohio valley regions southwestward across southeastern Louisiana to offshore of the Texas coast. High pressure.. building into Texas in the wake of the front.. is centered over Wyoming and northern Colorado. Given this surface pressure pattern, surface winds are gusty northerly across our area.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere, a strong upper level low pressure is over northern Iowa with a trough (or line) of low pressure extending southward into Texas. As a result of this upper air wind flow, our upper level winds are moderate to strong west northwesterly with winds over Austin at about 18,500 feet being westerly around 60 to 70 mph.

Cooler and drier air continues to settle into our area on the heels of gusty surface northerly surface winds following the cold front that moved through the area around 3am this morning.

The surface high will settle southward into Texas by later tonight into Wednesday. As the surface high moves eastward with a return south southeasterly wind due Wednesday night into Thursday.

By Friday into the weekend, clouds and humidity will be on the increase as low pressure deepens to our west. Some light rain will develop as early as Friday night with a better chance of rain showers and thunderstorms by Saturday into Sunday as the atmosphere becomes more unstable and a cold front approaches the area.

The cold front will move through the area Sunday morning with the best chance of rain showers and thunderstorms in the 6am to 10am time frame. Current NWS rainfall guidance suggests that we could see between 1/4 and 1/2 inch of rain in the Saturday into Sunday time frame.

Slightly cooler air will prevail in the wake of the front Sunday night into Monday with some lingering clouds.

Have a good Tuesday night and Wednesday…
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

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