Troy Kimmel Weather

Forecasting Austin and South Central Texas Weather Since 1984

TK’s Weather Discussion…

Updated 845am CDT Tuesday / 27 August 2013

…. Afternoon and Evening Rain Shower and Thunderstorm Chances Today ….
…. Dry Summer Weather Pattern Mid and Late Week into the Labor Day Weekend ….

On this Tuesday morning…. surface high pressure continues over the southeastern USA.. northeastern Gulf of Mexico as well as the western Atlantic Ocean. Another high pressure area is to our distant west over the four corners region. A low pressure area is over southeastern Colorado with a trough.. or line.. of low pressure extending southward into eastern New Mexico and far west Texas. As a result of this surface weather pattern, surface winds are south southeasterly over our area.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere… a strong upper level high pressure area continues over Missouri and the middle Mississippi Valley. Being on the south side of the upper air high, winds over south central Texas and the Austin metro area about 18,000 feet above the ground are south southeasterly 10 to 20 mph.

Abundant low level tropical moisture continues to dominate our area. This surge of moisture is what is left of a weak disturbance that moved through the northern Gulf of Mexico over the last few days. Daytime heating will again trigger rain chances with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms expected. With clouds and precipitation in the area, afternoon highs will continue to be down a few degrees today. Rain chances will decrease after sunset tonight.

Tomorrow through the remainder of the week and through your upcoming Labor Day weekend, I expect that the upper level high pressure area.. to our north.. will settle back  south southwestward to become more overhead of our area. As this occurs, rain chances drop from the forecast. In addition, given the on-going drought conditions, afternoon high temperatures will rise once again with near triple digit temperatures possible once again.

According to meteorologists at the NWS/National Hurricane Center, there are no  systems in the Atlantic Basin (Atlantic Ocean, Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea) that threaten development over the next five days.

Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: High to very high forecast confidence through the next seven day period.

Have a good Tuesday…
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

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