Troy Kimmel Weather

Forecasting Austin and South Central Texas Weather Since 1984

TK’s Weather Discussion….

Updated 845am CDT Friday / 23 August 2013

…. A Typical Late Summer Weather Pattern Continues ….
…. Slim Afternoon and Evening Rain Shower and Thunderstorm Chances ….
…. Watching the North Central and Northeast Gulf of Mexico ….

On this Friday morning…. surface high pressure continues over the southeastern USA and the western Atlantic Ocean. Another high pressure area is to our distant west over the four corners region. A low pressure area is over southeastern Colorado with a trough.. or line.. of low pressure extending southward into eastern New Mexico and far west Texas. As a result of this surface weather pattern, surface winds are south southeasterly over our area.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere… a upper level low pressure area is over the northeastern USA seaboard with another upper level low pressure area in northwestern Mexico and over the central Gulf of Mexico. An upper level high pressure area continues along a west-to-east line north of our local area. As a result of this upper air pattern, winds over south central Texas and the Austin metro area about 18,000 feet above the ground are southeasterly 10 to 20 mph.

The upper level low pressure area.. in northwestern Mexico.. has continue to spread a more moist and unstable air mass into our area from the southeast. As a result, we’ll continue to see isolated to widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms under a partly cloudy sky through the weekend.

A weak area of disturbed weather over the north central and northeastern Gulf of Mexico is expected to continue moving westward with little future development expected. This system is come ashore on the Texas coast by Sunday into Monday giving us a slightly increased chance of rain. Best rain chances will be to our south and southeast.

Guidance suggests that our atmosphere will become a little more stable with the passage.. to our south.. of the system by Tuesday and Wednesday of next week. Another weak tropical wave may approach the Texas coast by next Thursday and Friday.

Even with the slightly increased rain chances, it should be noted that the chance of rain at any given location is still relatively slim and the rain is not expected to improve the ongoing severe drought conditions across our area.

Afternoon high temperatures over the next seven day period.. across our area.. will be near or slightly above seasonal averages.

Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: High to very high forecast confidence through the next seven day period.

Have a good Friday…
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

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