Updated 845am CDT Thursday / 22 August 2013
…. A Typical Late Summer Weather Pattern Continues ….
…. Slim Afternoon and Evening Rain Shower and Thunderstorm Chances ….
On this Thursday morning…. surface high pressure continues over the southeastern USA and the western Atlantic Ocean. Another high pressure area is to our distant west over the four corners region. A low pressure area is over southeastern Colorado with a trough.. or line.. of low pressure extending southward into eastern New Mexico and far west Texas. As a result of this surface weather pattern, surface winds are south southeasterly over our area.
In the upper levels of the atmosphere… a upper level low pressure area is over the northeastern USA seaboard with another upper level low pressure area in northwestern Mexico and over the central Gulf of Mexico. An upper level high pressure area continues along a west-to-east line north of our local area. As a result of this upper air pattern, winds over south central Texas and the Austin metro area about 18,000 feet above the ground are southeasterly 10 to 20 mph.
The upper level low pressure area.. in northwestern Mexico.. has continue to spread a more moist and unstable air mass into our area from the southeast. As a result, we’ll continue to see isolated to widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms under a partly cloudy sky today and through the balance of the week and through our weekend. It should be noted, though, that the chance of rain at any given location is very slim and the rain is not expected to improve the ongoing severe drought conditions across our area.
Guidance suggests that our atmosphere will become a little more stable by early into middle parts of next week. As a result, I’ll drop rain chances once we get to next Tuesday and Wednesday.
Temperatures over the next seven day period.. across our area.. will be near or slightly above seasonal averages.
Based on the latest information from the NWS/National Hurricane Center, there are no tropical threats to the Gulf of Mexico.. or the Atlantic Ocean Basin.. over the next five days.
Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: High to very high forecast confidence through the end of the week and through our upcoming weekend.
Have a good Thursday…
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel