Updated 845am CDT Wednesday / 21 August 2013
…. A Mostly Dry Weather Pattern Continues Today ….
…. Slim Rain Shower and Thunderstorm Chances ….
On this Wednesday morning…. surface high pressure continues over the Ohio and Tennessee Valley regions with a weakening front over the southeastern Gulf states. Another high pressure area is to our distant west over the four corners region. A low pressure area is over northwest Texas and northeastern New Mexico with a trough.. or line.. of low pressure extending southwestward into southern New Mexico. As a result of this surface weather pattern, surface winds are light southeasterly over our area.
In the upper levels of the atmosphere… a upper level low pressure area is over the middle Mississippi and western Ohio Valley region with another upper level low pressure area in north central Mexico. An upper level high pressure area continues west and north of our area over the southwestern USA. As a result of this upper air pattern, winds over south central Texas and the Austin metro area about 18,000 feet above the ground are easterly 10 top 20 mph.
A few morning sprinkles have occurred over the area this morning.. otherwise the mostly dry and stable summer weather pattern over the weekend continues across our area.
The upper level low pressure area.. in north central Mexico.. has, as forecast, spread a more moist and unstable air mass into our area from the southeast. As a result, we’ll see isolated to widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms under a partly cloudy sky today and through the balance of the week and through the weekend. It should be noted, though, that the chance of rain at any given location is very slim and the rain is not expected to improve the ongoing severe drought conditions across our area.
Temperatures over the next seven day period.. across our area.. will be near or slightly above seasonal averages.
Based on the latest information from the NWS/National Hurricane Center, there are no tropical threats to the Gulf of Mexico.. or the Atlantic Ocean Basin.. over the next five days.
Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: High to very high forecast confidence through the end of the week and through our upcoming weekend.
Have a good Wednesday…
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel