Updated 845am CDT Tuesday / 20 August 2013
…. A Dry Weather Pattern Continues ….
…. Slim Rain Shower and Thunderstorm Chances Late Week into Weekend ….
On this Tuesday morning…. surface high pressure continues over the Ohio and Tennessee Valley regions with a weakening front over the southeastern Gulf states. Another high pressure area is to our distant west over the four corners region. A low pressure area is over northwest Texas and northeastern New Mexico with a trough.. or line.. of low pressure extending southwestward into southern New Mexico. As a result of this surface weather pattern, surface winds are light southeasterly over our area.
In the upper levels of the atmosphere… a upper level low pressure area is over the middle Mississippi and western Ohio Valley region with another upper level low pressure area along and off of the Texas coast. An upper level high pressure area continues west and north of our area over the southwestern USA. As a result of this upper air pattern, winds over south central Texas and the Austin metro area about 18,000 feet above the ground are fairly light and variable.
The dry and stable summer weather pattern over the weekend continues into the new week across our area.
The upper level low pressure area.. along and offshore of the Texas coast.. will shift westward over the next few days allowing a surge of low level moisture from the Gulf of Mexico to come ashore of the Texas coast beginning over the next few days and remaining in place through the balance of the week. As a result, we’ll see isolated to widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms under a partly cloudy sky beginning here in the next day or so and continuing through the balance of the week.
Temperatures over the next seven day period.. across our area.. will be near or slightly above seasonal averages.
Based on the latest information from the NWS/National Hurricane Center, there are no tropical threats to the Gulf of Mexico.. or the Atlantic Ocean Basin.. over the next five days.
Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: High forecast confidence today into tonight and through tomorrow and tomorrow night with medium to high forecast confidence.. regarding the rain chances.. for the latter part of the week through the weekend.
Have a good Tuesday…
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel