Updated 845am CDT Monday / 19 August 2013
…. A Dry Weather Pattern Continues Into the New Week ….
…. Surge Of Moisture From Gulf of Mexico Due Tomorrow into Late Week ….
…. Slim Rain Shower and Thunderstorm Chances Wednesday into Late Week ….
On this Monday morning…. a weakening front extends southwestward from a surface low around the mouth of the Mississippi River into the western Gulf of Mexico. High pressure.. over the Great Lakes and the Ohio Valley region extends southwestward into Texas. Another low pressure area is over northwest Texas and northeastern New Mexico with a trough.. or line.. of low pressure extending southwestward into southern New Mexico. As a result of this surface weather pattern, surface winds are easterly across our local area.
In the upper levels of the atmosphere… a upper level low pressure area is over the Tennessee and Ohio Valley region with another upper level low pressure area along and off of the Texas coast. An upper level high pressure area continues west of our area over the southwestern USA. As a result of this upper air pattern, winds over south central Texas and the Austin metro area about 18,000 feet above the ground are northerly at 10 to 20 mph.
The dry and stable summer weather pattern over the weekend continues into the new week across our area.
The upper level low pressure area.. along and offshore of the Texas coast.. will shift westward over the next few days allowing a surge of low level moisture from the Gulf of Mexico to come ashore of the Texas coast beginning tomorrow and remaining in place through the balance of the week. As a result, we’ll see isolated to widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms under a partly cloudy sky beginning here in the next day or so and continuing through the balance of the week.
Temperatures over the next seven day period.. across our area.. will be near or slightly above seasonal averages.
Based on the latest information from the NWS/National Hurricane Center, there are no threats to the northwest Gulf of Mexico coast over the next five days.
Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: High forecast confidence today into tonight and through the middle part of the week with medium to high forecast confidence.. regarding the rain chances.. for the latter part of the week into the weekend.
Have a good Monday…
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel