Updated 500am CDT Friday / 16 August 2013
…. A Weak Cold Front Continues to Wash Out South of Our Area ….
…. A Continuing Chance of Rain and Thunderstorms Today into Tonight ….
…. Stable Dry Weather Pattern for the Weekend into Early Next Week ….
On this Friday morning…. a stationary front extends westward from southeastern Louisiana into the northwestern Gulf of Mexico and then across the middle Texas coast into southwest Texas. High pressure is north of the front over the Ohio Valley westward into the middle Mississippi Valley with another high over southern Colorado. A trough.. or line.. of surface low pressure extends southwestward from a weak surface low over northeast New Mexico into far west Texas east of El Paso. As a result, surface winds are east northeasterly across our local area.
In the upper levels of the atmosphere… a upper level high pressure area.. acting like a “lid” on the atmosphere.. continues west of our area over the southwestern USA as a upper level low pressure trough.. or “line” of low pressure.. continues over the eastern half of the USA. As a result of this upper air pattern, winds over south central Texas and the Austin metro area about 18,000 feet above the ground are northwesterly at 20 to 30 mph.
The cold front that passed the local area on Wednesday continues to weaken to our south. In the wake of the overnight rains in some areas, there is enough instability in our atmosphere for additional rain shower and thunderstorm activity through tonight.. especially with daytime heating this afternoon.
By tomorrow and through the weekend and continuing into early and mid parts of next week.. the upper air high will become a little stronger overhead so I see a dry stable weather pattern for that part of the extended forecast period.
Based on the latest information from the NWS/National Hurricane Center, a tropical wave continues west northwestward from the Yucatan Peninsula and will move into the south central Gulf of Mexico by tomorrow with a potential for development into a tropical cyclone. There is still disagreement.. in the computer models.. about where the system will end up but there will be some potential for the western Gulf of Mexico so we need to continue to watch the system and the latest releases from our colleagues at the NWS/National Hurricane Center.
Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: High forecast confidence today into tonight and through the weekend into the first half of next week. My confidence in the forecast has fallen slightly for the end of the weekend into next week given the uncertainty surrounding the future of the potential Gulf of Mexico tropical weather system.
Have a good Thursday…
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel