Updated 845am CDT Monday / 12 August 2013
…. Summer Weather Pattern Rolls On ….
…. A Weak Cold Front with a Slim Chance of Rain Late Week ….
On this Monday morning…. a stationary front extends west southwestward from northwest Tennessee through central Arkansas and southeast Oklahoma across the plains of north and west Texas to near El Paso. High pressure is over the Florida panhandle and over southern Colorado. As a result, surface winds are southerly across our local area.
In the upper levels of the atmosphere… a upper level high pressure area.. acting like a “lid” on the atmosphere.. is over the southern plains and southeastern USA. A strong upper level low pressure area is over the Pacific northwest with a trough.. or line.. of low pressure along the west coast of the USA. As a result of this upper air pattern, winds over south central Texas and the Austin metro area about 18,000 feet above the ground are generally light and variable.
After some rain shower and thunderstorm activity over the weekend, the summer weather pattern continues across Texas with the upper level high rebuilding overhead. Clouds will at a premium with rain chances dropping from the forecast. Afternoon high temperatures will continue well above seasonal average through mid week.
By late Wednesday night into Thursday, a weakening cold front will settle southward into the area from north Texas. The front will add some additional lift with a moist and somewhat more unstable in place; as a result, I expect widely scattered rain shower and thunderstorm activity as the front washes out overhead of south central Texas. The front will wash out and return northward as a weak cold front by late Friday night into Saturday. At the same time, the upper air high will become a little stronger so I see a dry stable weather pattern for next weekend into the following week.
Based on the latest information from the NWS/National Hurricane Center, a tropical wave over the central Caribbean will move westward and perhaps to around the Yucatan Peninsula and the southern Gulf of Mexico by mid into late week. Current indications are that the system may become better organized by then, but, the upper level high pressure area over Texas and southeast USA will keep the system moving westward into southern Mexico rather than northward toward the US Gulf Coast.
Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: High to very high forecast confidence today with a few afternoon buildups with very slim rain chances (not mentioned in the forecast right now).. then very high forecast confidence Tuesday through Wednesday.. falling slightly to high confidence for Thursday and Friday in regard to rain chances with the weak cold front. My forecast confidence returns to very high for Saturday and Sunday.
Have a good Monday…
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel