Updated 845am CDT Friday / 9 August 2013
…. A Few More Clouds Over the Weekend With Very Slim Rain Chances ….
On this Friday morning…. a weakening cold front is located from western Tennessee into southern Arkansas and northern Louisiana westward across north and far west Texas. A trough.. or line.. of low pressure extends south southwestward from a surface low over southwestern Texas southward into northern Mexico. As a result, surface winds are southerly across our local area.
In the upper levels of the atmosphere… a strong upper level high pressure area.. acting like a “lid” on the atmosphere.. is located over the eastern part of Texas and western Louisiana. As a result of this upper air pattern, winds over south central Texas and the Austin metro area about 18,000 feet above the ground are light and variable.
The summer weather pattern continues across Texas with little change expected over the area today. As the “lid” holds on the atmosphere, clouds will at a premium with afternoon high temperatures continuing well above seasonal average today.
As we get into the weekend into early next week, a trough.. or “line”.. low pressure area is forecast to drift westward across the northwestern Gulf of Mexico and into south Texas. I believe that the main effects of the low pressure (i.e., rain chances) remaining mostly to the south, southeast and east of our local area and mainly on Sunday.
Based on the latest information from the NWS/National Hurricane Center, the tropical Atlantic basin, including the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico, remain quiet with no prospect for development in the next five days.
Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: High to very high forecast confidence today into Saturday.. falling to moderate confidence for Saturday night into Sunday and Monday in regard to the rain chances.. then high to very high forecast confidence again for Tuesday into Thursday next week.
Have a good Friday…
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel