Troy Kimmel Weather

Forecasting Austin and South Central Texas Weather Since 1984

TK’s Weather Discussion….

Updated 845am CDT Thursday / 8 August 2013

…. Little Change in our Weather Pattern with Summer Heat Continuing ….
…. A Few More Clouds by the Weekend ….

On this Thursday morning…. an area of surface high pressure continues over the western and central Gulf of Mexico. A weakening stationary front is located from northwest Mississippi through Arkansas and Oklahoma into north and west Texas. A trough.. or line.. of low pressure extends south southwestward from a low over western Oklahoma into southeastern New Mexico and far southwest Texas. As a result, surface winds are southerly across our local area.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere… a strong upper level high pressure area.. acting like a “lid” on the atmosphere.. is located over the state of Texas. As a result of this upper air pattern, winds over south central Texas and the Austin metro area about 18,000 feet above the ground are fairly light and variable.

The summer weather pattern continues across Texas with little change expected over the remainder of the week. As the “lid” holds on the atmosphere, clouds will at a premium with afternoon high temperatures well above seasonal averages.

The NWS/Austin-San Antonio continues their Heat Advisory for most our local area through 7pm today with afternoon highs in the 100F to 105F degree range and heat indices reaching the critical 105F to 110F in some areas. Persons planning outdoor activities should avoid the warmest afternoon hours and, at all times, remain hydrated and try not to overdo it.

As mentioned yesterday, once we get into the weekend into next week, an upper level low pressure area (we call it a “tutt” low.. look that one up!!) is forecast to drift westward across the northern Gulf of Mexico and then begin to interact with the upper level high.. or the “lid” on the atmosphere.. over our area. I still believe that the high will “win” out with the low being diverted more southward with little effect locally and rain chances remaining mostly to the south, southeast and east of our local area.

Based on the latest information from the NWS/National Hurricane Center, the tropical Atlantic basin, including the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico, remain quiet with no prospect for development in the next five days.

Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: Very high forecast confidence into tomorrow and Saturday.. falling to moderate to high confidence for Saturday night into Sunday in regard to possible slim rain chances.. then very high forecast confidence again for Tuesday and Wednesday.

Have a good Thursday…
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

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