Updated 845am CDT Tuesday / 6 August 2013
…. Little Change in our Weather Pattern ….
…. Summer Heat Continues ….
…. A Few More Clouds by the Weekend But I’m Holding Off Any Rain Chances ….
On this Tuesday morning…. an area of surface high pressure continues over the Gulf of Mexico. A weakening cold front is moving southward from northern Arkansas and central Oklahoma westward into the Texas Panhandle. A trough.. or line.. of low pressure extends south southwestward from the low over northwestern Texas into southeastern New Mexico and far southwest Texas. As a result, surface winds are southerly across our local area.
In the upper levels of the atmosphere… a strong upper level high pressure area.. acting like a “lid” on the atmosphere.. is located over the state of Texas. As a result of this upper air pattern, winds over south central Texas and the Austin metro area about 18,000 feet above the ground are fairly light and variable.
The summer weather pattern continues across Texas with little change expected over the remainder of the week. As the “lid” holds on the atmosphere, clouds will at a premium with afternoon high temperatures well above seasonal averages.
The NWS/Austin-San Antonio has issued a Heat Advisory for most our local area through 7pm on Thursday with afternoon highs in the 100F to 105F degree range and heat indices reaching the critical 105F to 110F in some areas. Persons planning outdoor activities should avoid the warmest afternoon hours and, at all times, remain hydrated and try not to overdo it.
Once we get into the weekend into next week, an upper level low pressure area (we call it a “tutt” low.. look that one up!!) is forecast to drift westward across the northern Gulf of Mexico and then begin to interact with the upper level high.. or the “lid” on the atmosphere.. over our area. At this point, I believe that the high will “win” with the low being diverted more southward with little effect locally and rain chances remaining well south, southeast and east of our local area.
Based on the latest information from the NWS/National Hurricane Center, the tropical Atlantic basin, including the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico, remain quiet with no prospect for development in the next five days.
My local forecast confidence.. very high forecast confidence through Friday.. falling to moderate to high for Saturday, Sunday and Monday as I continue to monitor for a very slim possibility of precipitation as the upper level low moves westward from the northwestern Gulf of Mexico into far south Texas.
Have a good Tuesday…
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel