Updated 845am CDT Thursday / 25 July 2013
…. A Stable Air Mass in Place Currently Across the Area ….
…. A Weak Front to Move Southward into Texas Late Friday into Saturday ….
…. Slim Rain Chances Late Friday into the Weekend ….
…. Upper Level High Rebuilds with Stable Summer Weather Pattern Next Week ….
On this Thursday morning…. an area of high pressure continues over the Gulf of Mexico. A cold front has made it as far south as central Georgia.. central Alabama and southern Arkansas into Kansas and eastern Colorado. A trough.. or line.. of low pressure extends southwestward from the low over northwestern Oklahoma into west Texas and eastern New Mexico. As a result, surface winds are southerly across our local area.
In the upper levels of the atmosphere… a deepening upper air low pressure trough is over the eastern third of the USA with the upper level high pressure area has shifted a little further west over west Texas.. New Mexico and Colorado and the southwestern USA. As a result of this upper air pattern, winds over south central Texas and the Austin metro area about 18,000 feet above the ground are becoming a little more west northwesterly at 10 to 20 mph.
A stable atmosphere prevails over the area as upper level high pressure continues overhead and to the west of the area. This pattern will continue over the next 24 hours although the upper high will continue to shift further west as a result of the deepening upper air low pressure over the eastern third of the country.
It now appears that a surface cold front well to our north over the northern plains and Rockies will move south and will move into Texas as a very weak frontal system suggesting some rain chances beginning late tomorrow night into the weekend. Temperatures will come down a few degrees for the weekend due to cloud cover and minimally, due to the weakened cold front itself.
For next week, I’m holding on to a dry forecast with well above average afternoon high temperatures.
A tropical cyclone.. currently tropical storm Dorian.. is west of the Cape Verde Islands in the far eastern Atlantic Ocean. Otherwise, there are no other tropical threats at this time according to the forecasters at the NWS/National Hurricane Center.
Have a good Wednesday…
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel