Troy Kimmel Weather

Forecasting Austin and South Central Texas Weather Since 1984

TK’s Special Weather Update #2 (735pm Sat/09Feb2013)

by

Austin / Travis County and South Central Texas Weather Update
Prepared by Meteorologist Troy Kimmel (www.troykimmelweather.com)
736pm CDT – Saturday / 9 February 2013

.. No Big Changes …

A few sprinkles.. light fog and low clouds continue over our area this evening as a warm front lifts northward across the area. A cold front and intensifying low pressure is moving eastward through far west Texas. A strong upper level low pressure storm system is lifting east northeastward from northeast Utah into northwest Colorado.

Rain shower and thunderstorm chances will increase after midnight and then peak in the early morning hours (around sunrise) as the cold front moves across the area. I expect the front to move through the Austin metro area in the 6 am to 9am time period. The very slim severe weather risk will end with the frontal passage with rain chances decreasing. Clouds, however, as pointed out in the afternoon update, will linger since yet another upper air disturbance – part of the larger system in the plains – will move across the area (and the cooler air at the surface in the wake of tomorrows cold front) on Monday and Monday evening.

The basic forecast scenario, as outlined earlier today,  remains unchanged. The NWS/Storm Prediction Center, in their just updated (100053z) day one severe weather outlook valid through 6am tomorrow…
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html ..
has decreased the overall size of the “slight risk” severe thunderstorm outlook but it still includes central and north Texas.. mainly north of Austin.

I think that this continues be a “low end” threat for Austin and south central Texas with the main risk locally continuing to be greater than 1″ diameter hail with a lesser risk of strong straight line thunderstorm winds. The tornado risk is very minimal over our area with the greatest risk (still a slim risk) north of the Austin metro area.

The updated NWS/NCEP Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF) for Austin and south central Texas is now suggesting only up to about 1/2 inch of rainfall between now and noon tomorrow. With the passage of the best atmospheric dynamics to our north, I fear that our totals could be less.

ABIA Updated NWS TAF (issued 092300z)…

KAUS 092336Z 1000/1106 15011KT 5SM BR OVC015
     FM100200 13010KT P6SM VCSH OVC022
      TEMPO 1011/1014 2SM TSRA OVC010CB
     FM101400 32010KT P6SM BKN012 OVC030
     FM101600 32012KT P6SM FEW015 BKN035
     FM101900 36012KT P6SM FEW040 BKN150=

Updates will be issued as necessary.

tk