Troy Kimmel Weather

Forecasting Austin and South Central Texas Weather Since 1984

TK’s Special Weather Briefing (930am Wed 14Aug2013)

by

258pm CT – Wed / 14 Aug 2013

…. Authority / NWS/Storm Prediction Center ….

Ref: Downburst Threat Locally

Please see…
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1717.html

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1717
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0150 PM CDT WED AUG 14 2013

   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL TX

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 141850Z - 142015Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT MAY DEVELOP ACROSS CNTRL TX AS
   CELLS INCREASE IN COVERAGE. THE PRIMARY THREAT WOULD BE FOR DAMAGING
   WIND GUSTS. IF THE STORMS CAN CONSOLIDATE INTO AN ORGANIZED
   CLUSTER...WW ISSUANCE COULD BECOME NECESSARY LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

   DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG A COLD
   FRONT FROM NORTH OF DEL RIO EWD TO NEAR THE AUSTIN AND COLLEGE
   STATION AREAS. SFC DEWPOINTS ALONG THIS CORRIDOR ARE IN THE MID 60S
   TO LOWER 70S F WITH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S F. THIS IS
   CREATING SFC TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS AROUND 30 DEGREES WHICH COMBINED
   WITH STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR AN
   ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE THREAT. WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD KEEP THE
   CONVECTION PULSE IN NATURE SUGGESTING ANY WIND DAMAGE THREAT WILL BE
   CONCENTRATED NEAR PEAK HEATING.

   ..BROYLES/KERR.. 08/14/2013

Monitoring.. tk

—

1135am CT – Wed / 14 August 2013

…. Update ….

…. Authority / NWS/Storm Prediction Center ….

The NWS/Storm Prediction Center has placed our local area in a SLIGHT RISK of
severe thunderstorms for this afternoon into tonight based on the downburst risk.

See my earlier email and this link for further details..
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Will continue to monitor..
tk

—

Austin / Travis County and South Central Texas Special Weather Briefing
Prepared by Incident Meteorologist Troy Kimmel (www.troykimmelweather.com)
930am CDT – Wednesday / 14 August 2013

.. Scattered Thunderstorms This Afternoon and Evening with Strong Straight Line Winds Possible ..

On this Wednesday morning, a weak cold front is moving slowly southward out of north Texas. By later this afternoon into tonight, the atmospheric lift associated with the advancing weakening cold front will move southward into south central Texas and will combine with day time heating, atmospheric instability and moisture to produce scattered rain showers and thunderstorms ahead of.. along and even just behind the frontal boundary.

Although the NWS/Storm Prediction Center doesn’t expect widespread severe weather, I think that, given expected high temperatures this afternoon.. in advance of the frontal boundary.. near or even above 100 degrees.. any of the thunderstorms that do develop could have the potential to produce very strong downdrafts resulting in strong straight line thunderstorm winds in the vicinity of the thunderstorms.

Any thunderstorms would, of course, be accompanied by frequent deadly cloud to ground lightning as well.

This will be my only statement on this weather situation but I will continue to monitor individual thunderstorms that develop later today into tonight.

tk