Austin / Travis County and South Central Texas Weather Update #1
Prepared by Incident Meteorologist Troy Kimmel (www.troykimmelweather.com)
1055am CT – Sunday / 2 February 2014
… Much Colder Temperatures Across the Area with Overrunning Precipitation …
Mid into late morning on this Sunday, much colder surface air.. in a fairly shallow layer
between 3,000 and 4,000 feet deep off the ground.. continues to move southward over
the area as an upper level low pressure disturbance moves overhead from west to east
to the north of the area.
Today, as the disturbance moves by, we’ll continue to see “overrunning” clouds and
light rain over much of the area as moisture slides up and over the top of the surface
based colder air from the south. By tonight into Monday, when the disturbance moves off
to the northeast, our precipitation chances will shut off. At this time, it appears that the
precipitation should end before temperatures fall to critical freezing levels overnight
tonight, however, I’ll continue to monitor this carefully.
Surface temperatures in the Austin metro area and along the IH35 corridor, at 10am,
are in the middle and upper 30s. A more detailed temperature can be gathered by
consulting the LCRA Hydromet at… http://hydromet.lcra.org/full.aspx
(select “current temperature” under the “select hydromet data to display” pull down)
At this point, I do not think that we will see a problem along the IH35 corridor this
afternoon into tonight although some leftover pools of water.. from our rain today.. could
freeze overnight given the forecast lows in the upper 20s to near 30 F.
In any case, I’ll continue to monitor this on-going weather situation in case things
…. Down the Road ….
Please note that more cold air is poised to move into Texas later this week with an active
upper air pattern continuing (i.e., more upper air disturbances with potential precipitation
chances). Particularly, let’s keep an eye on the Thursday into Friday period locally. Already,
the NWS Austin-San Antonio has mixed freezing/frozen precipitation in the public forecast
locally for the Thursday night into Friday morning time period.
At this point, I see this event as a low to moderate probability event and, if it were to
materialize, a potential high impact event.