TK’s Special Briefing…. – Troy Kimmel Weather

Austin / Travis County and South Central Texas Weather Update #5 – FINAL STATEMENT
Prepared by Incident Meteorologist Troy Kimmel (www.troykimmelweather.com)
1159pm CT – Thursday / 12 June 2014

… Tornado Watch Allowed to Expire at 12 Midnight ….
… No Warnings Remain in Effect ….

Radar indicates that the heaviest thunderstorms continue to move southeastward east
of the IH35 corridor…

A couple of things…

NWS Austin San Antonio advises that a storm survey team will be dispatched around
daybreak for photo confirmed tornado that touched down in eastern Burnet County
around the Bertram/Briggs area a little after 8pm. There is confirmed structural damage
in area… no injuries reported. Tornado occurred in tornado warned area. Good job,
NWS Austin-San Antonio!!

I will let you know late Friday when the NWS decides on the EF category on this
tornado.

BTW.. here is storm chaser Aaron Dooley’s picture of the tornado (courtesy of Aaron
through the KXAN website):

… Rainfall totals were much heavier than I thought they would be with some 2 to 4 inch and
more totals in the Colorado River watershed west of Austin.. just where it is needed. I am
glad to have been so badly wrong on this call!

… Straight line wind damage was most significant with bow echo feature that surged
southeastward out of eastern Burnet County in the 9pm hour. Significant straight line
wind damage… trees, power lines, fences down… were seen in area from Lakeway/Lake
Travis southeastward through Oak Hill/Bee Cave and into the southern half of Austin
metro area…
Other straight line wind damage was reported in Buda.. Kyle and Driftwood areas..
I have a feeling that more damage will be discovered areawide with the light of day tomorrow
morning.

This is my last statement on this weather situation.

I will send updates over the next few days as the NWS compiles their storm report
summary on this event.

—

800pm CT Thu / 12 June 2014

… Authority / NWS Austin – San Antonio …

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
758 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
  NORTHEASTERN BURNET COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
  THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF BERTRAM...
  NORTHWESTERN WILLIAMSON COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...

* UNTIL 830 PM CDT

* AT 755 PM CDT...NWS METEOROLOGISTS HAVE DETECTED A SEVERE
  THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 6 MILES NORTH OF
  WATSON...OR 9 MILES EAST OF LAMPASAS...MOVING SOUTH AT 25 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
  8 MILES EAST OF SUNNYLANE BY 805 PM CDT...
  WATSON BY 810 PM CDT...
  BRIGGS...JOPPA AND 7 MILES EAST OF SHADY GROVE BY 825 PM CDT...
  MAHOMET...7 MILES NORTHWEST OF ANDICE AND 8 MILES NORTHEAST OF
  BERTRAM BY 830 PM CDT...

—

Austin / Travis County and South Central Texas Weather Update #4
Prepared by Incident Meteorologist Troy Kimmel (www.troykimmelweather.com)
655pm CT – Thursday / 12 June 2014

… NWS Storm Prediction Center Issues a Mesoscale Update …
… Tornado Watch Update …

Link to mesoscale discussion:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0976.html

Let’s be weather aware through the night.. make sure your NOAA All Hazard
Weather Radios are set to alarm in case of severe weather.

NWS/Austin San Antonio Watch/Advisory/Warning Status for our area….
Travis County… http://alerts.weather.gov/cap/wwaatmget.php?x=TXC453&y=1
Williamson County… http://alerts.weather.gov/cap/wwaatmget.php?x=TXC491&y=1
Hays County… http://alerts.weather.gov/cap/wwaatmget.php?x=TXC209&y=1

I’m continuing to monitor.. tk

—

Austin / Travis County and South Central Texas Weather Update #3
Prepared by Incident Meteorologist Troy Kimmel (www.troykimmelweather.com)
424pm CT – Thursday / 12 June 2014

… Tornado Watch in Effect for All of our Area Until 12 Midnight Tonight …

Includes Austin metro area… IH35 corridor and all surrounding counties…

From the NWS Storm Prediction Center:

Link to watch text:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0288.html

Thunderstorms are developing west of Waco and south through southeast of Junction.
Thunderstorm motion should be east southeastward at 25 to 30 mph.

Let’s be weather aware over the next nine hours or so.. make sure NOAA All Hazard
Weather Radios are set to alarm in case of severe weather.

I’m continuing to monitor.. tk

—

Austin / Travis County and South Central Texas Weather Update #2
Prepared by Incident Meteorologist Troy Kimmel (www.troykimmelweather.com)
223pm CT – Thursday / 12 June 2014

… NWS/Storm Prediction Center Issues Mesoscale Discussion …
… Severe Weather Watch Likely by 3 to 4pm (80% Liklihood)….

Link:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0972.html

Rapid thunderstorm development likely to our west northwest in next few hours…
thunderstorms should move southeastward..

Let’s be weather aware over the next nine hours or so.. make sure NOAA All Hazard
Weather Radios are set to alarm in case of severe weather.

I’m monitoring.. tk

—

Austin / Travis County and South Central Texas Special Weather Briefing
Prepared by Incident Meteorologist Troy Kimmel (www.troykimmelweather.com)
745am CT – Thursday / 12 June 2014

… “Slight” Risk of Severe Thunderstorms Locally Later Today into Tonight …

.. Synoptic / Forecast Discussion …
Early this Thursday morning… an area of rain showers and thunderstorms is over north
Texas and over parts of central Texas. This has developed on the heels of an upper air
low pressure disturbance and ahead of a south southeastward moving cold front located
from central Oklahoma to near Lubbock into central New Mexico.

By later today into tonight.. a second upper air low pressure disturbance will combine
with the southward moving cold front as well as existing rain cooled boundaries.. from
the rain area to our north this morning.. and this afternoon’s surface heating to produce
another round of rain showers and thunderstorms. While the majority of the rain showers
and thunderstorms will be to our north and northeast.. it is still possible that a few
thunderstorms could affect the Austin and the IH35 corridor metro areas.

NWS/Storm Prediction Center meteorologists have posted a “slight” risk of severe
thunderstorms for areas generally along and north and northeast of a west-to-east line
through the Austin area. The greatest risks locally appear to be larger hail (1″ in diameter
or larger) as well as strong straight line thunderstorm winds (58 mph or higher)..

Link to the NWS/Storm Prediction Center day one severe weather outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Given 2.70″/1 hour, 3.50″/3 hour and 4.50″/6 hour flash flood guidance values..
rainfall amounts necessary to initiate flash flooding in the time period indicated
for Travis County (metro areas would be slightly lower given impervious cover)..
I do not expect any flooding problems other than some localized urban issues
where thunderstorms occur since rainfall forecasts are generally at or below
1/2 inch.

As I see it now, the threat of thunderstorms should end by the morning rush
hour on Friday morning.

I’ll continue to monitor this situation and will keep you informed.
tk

Troy Kimmel Weather

Forecasting Austin and South Central Texas Weather Since 1984